In March 2015, the Wall Street Journal launched its first Madness Machine, an interactive app to generate an NCAA basketball bracket in 60 seconds. And, as it would turn out later, a really simple way to understand asbestos risk analysis.

The starting point each March is the same, everybody knows who the 64 teams in the tournament are. But then you launch the app and it asks about each of the factors you think matter most to win the NCAA basketball tournament – offense or defense, rebounding or 3-point shooting, free-throw shooting or turnovers and steals, tournament experience, and so on. It gives you interactive sliders for quickly weighting the importance of each factor, including the Madness Meter to set the level you expect for upsets and unpredictability. The app includes a booster setting if you want to give some extra emphasis to your alma mater or favorite team. It even has a box you can check if you really hate Duke and want a bracket with anybody but Duke to win.

Then you just hit Calculate and your custom bracket is generated based on all the factors that you specified. When you look at it, it is not about whether anyone says, “Wow, I have the definitive correct analysis. I’ve got the winner here.” But it is good enough that people look at it and say, “Hey, you know for just getting my head around this, it gives me a way to see it organized, to translate the data I input into a result.” And that’s interesting.

Now rewind back to the beginning, but instead of a field of college basketball teams, start with a set of case facts. Then think about the factors you think matter most in the importance or risk of the case – jurisdiction and court or state law to be applied, plaintiff counsel or number of defendants, plaintiff disease or type of exposure, and so on. Now imagine a risk calculator that helps organize these attributes into categories, such as Judicial and Plaintiff factors – even Situational factors like whether depositions or trust claims are available. Then include some rating methods to give more weight to the factors that could have the greatest impact on the overall case risk score.

What if you could then hit Calculate and an overall risk for your case could be generated based on the data you specified? In 60 seconds? And what if it was robust; good enough that people could look at it and say, “Hey, you know for just getting my head around this, it gives me a way to see it organized, to translate the data I input into a result.”? That’s what asbestos risk analytics looks like. And that’s interesting.

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